Apenwarr on Bug sizes

Apenwarr suggest that “all bugs are effectively the same size.”⊕ (Pennarun 2017)

He does this with several arguments. First, he uses his SWE simulator to show a graph of bugs completed over time is roughly linear.

SWE simulator simulation of bug sizes shows linear completion rate

Next, he explains using the Central Limit Thereom from probability why this averaging out is mathematically expected.

Finally, he shows burndown charts for real projects and shows that they are roughly linear.

A chart from a real project shows roughly linear bug completion rate

Pennarun, Avery. 2017. “An Epic Treatise on Scheduling, Bug Tracking, and Triage.” Apenwarr (blog). December 13, 2017. https://apenwarr.ca/log/?m=201712.

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